Initial Jobless Claims Still Dismal

by Chris Grau

Initial Jobless Claims | Reported 365,000 | Est 370,000 | Prior 380,000 | MODEST

The Initial Jobless claims report was in-line with expectations.  This initially boosted bond prices benefiting mortgage rates.  We will need to be watching the stock market closely this week since there is and have been no substantial economic reports.  Mortgage Bonds will be reacting opposite stocks.

Mortgage Rates Predictions

by Chris Grau

The Fannie Mae Bonds +3bp on the day @ 100.72.  We saw .125% Improvement in rates since yesterday.  Rates are Holding.

Conforming No Points & 1%

30 Fixed  6.000% | 5.750%

15 Fixed 5.500% | 5.250%

7/1 Arm 5.750% | 5.250%

5/1 Arm 5.375% | 5.000%

3/1 Arm 5.375% | 4.750%

30 Fixed FHA 6.000%

15 Fixed FHA 6.000%

Jumbo No Points & 1%

30 Fixed N/A | 7.000%

15 Fixed 6.750% | 6.250%

7/1 Arm 6.625% | 5.875%

5/1 Arm 6.375% | 5.625%

3/1 Arm 5.875.% | 5.125%

1/1 Arm 6.875% | 4.875%

Mortgage Rates Predicitons | 5.7.08

by Chris Grau

The Fannie Mae Bonds +34bp on the day.  Rates should improve.

Conforming No Points & 1%

30 Fixed  6.125% | 5.875%

15 Fixed 5.625% | 5.375%

7/1 Arm 5.875% | 5.375%

5/1 Arm 5.625% | 5.125%

3/1 Arm 5.500% | 4.875%

30 Fixed FHA 6.000%

15 Fixed FHA 5.500%

Jumbo No Points & 1%

30 Fixed N/A | 7.125%

15 Fixed 6.875% | 6.250%

7/1 Arm 6.875% | 6.125%

5/1 Arm 6.500% | 5.875%

3/1 Arm 6.000% | 5.250%

1/1 Arm 6.875% | 5.000%

Black Gold inventories help Mortgage Bonds +19bp

by Chris Grau

Crude Inventories | Reported 5,654,000 | Prior 3,848,000 | MODEST

Crude Inventories reported much higher than expected resulting in some of the commodities money being invested in Mortgage Backed Securities.  Maybe we won’t continue to see $120.00+ oil prices… maybe that’s just wishful thinking.

Economic Reports for week of May 5, 2008

by Chris Grau

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index | Reported 52.0 | Est 49.5 | Prior 49.6 | MODEST

Crude Inventories | Reported [WED 5.7] | Prior 3,848,000 | MODEST

Initial Jobless Claims | Reported [THU 5.8] | Est 370,000 | Prior 380,000 | MODEST

Balance of Trade | Reported [FRI 5.9] | Est -$61,300,000,000 | Prior -$62,300,000,000 | MODEST

This is a light week for economic reports.  Mortgage backed securities will basically react to the Stock market and levels of support and resistance created by moving averages.

Employment Report Bad, but not that bad…

by Chris Grau

Non-Farm Payrolls | Reported -20,000 | Est -75,000 | Prior -80,000 | ELEVATED

Unemployment Rate | Reported 5.0% | Est 5.2% | Prior 5.1% | ELEVATED

Average Work Week | Reported 33.7 | Est 33.7 | Prior 33.8 | ELEVATED

Hourly Earnings | Reported 0.1% | Est 0.3% | Prior 0.3% | ELEVATED